As state revenues keep exceeding expectations, the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group is following suit with its upcoming forecast — at least in the short term.
Group members increased the fiscal 2021 estimate by 6.6 percent or over $477 million over the previous estimate announced in April. The total tax estimate was increased by $463 million and the estimate for other taxes was boosted by $14 million. If met, this would be an 11.7 percent increase above final fiscal 2020 receipts.
Revenues for October beat expectations by 12 percent, and monthly revenues have consistently beat for most of the year despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The fiscal 2022 estimate, however, is headed the other way — down almost 3 percent or $224 million from the new fiscal 2021 mark, in part due to transfers out of the state general fund as directed by state law. The amount of total taxes is projected to dip by 2.1 percent in fiscal 2022 after a better than 11 percent increase for the rest of this fiscal year.
