Recession is looking more likely over the next year than it was early this year, but one of the presenters at the annual Emporia Economic Outlook Conference doesn’t think a downturn will be as severe in Kansas as it may be elsewhere.
Jeremy Hill, the director of Wichita State’s Center for Economic Development and Business Research, expects any recession to be “more shallow” than other parts of the country. Part of that has to do with the area and state industries that often do well in recessions.
Hill also believes there will be net-zero employment, with a first-half decline and a second-half rebound. Competition for jobs, both during and after a recession, will likely keep wages elevated.
Having said that, Hill mentions the recession risk increasing from 30 percent to 70 percent over the next year, and he says the root of that is inflation, especially for lower-income residents.
At the policy level, the Federal Reserve is increasing interest rates to slow down inflation, acknowledging the heightened risk of a recession by early next year and the prospect of lower job growth.
